NASA will decide Saturday whether astronauts will ride Boeing's Starliner home or use SpaceX's Dragon instead

On Saturday, NASA officials will announce their final decision on whether two NASA astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, will return to Earth aboard Boeing's Starliner spacecraft or go home aboard a SpaceX flight  a decision that could have a huge impact on the rapidly growing space industry.

Here's the background. Boeing launched its first crewed Starliner mission on June 5, with a planned eight-day stay at the International Space Station (ISS), which is expected to be the final, critical hurdle before the capsule is certified for regular astronaut flights to and from the ISS. However, at the end of the approach to the station, the spacecraft of the Starliner faced many technical issues -that some helium leaks could not be leaked in the power system.

After about an hour late, the engineer was able to return four of the five broken engines on the Internet (Starliner 28 engine). But since then, NASA and Boeing have been studying the root cause of the problem, including analyzing data from the engines aboard Starliner and conducting ground tests of replica engines at White Sands Test Range in New Mexico to study their performance in conditions similar to those of the spacecraft's station-launch experience.

"Our primary concern is that the deorbit engine burn is successful to ensure that the [propulsion] system operates as intended throughout the entire deorbit," NASA Deputy Administrator Ken Bowersox said at a press conference at the start of the mission this month. NASA acknowledged that the organization's leadership had not agreed on the right course of action going forward. Boeing released a public statement on the safety of Starliner and the thoroughness of its testing campaign. A high-stakes decision on Saturday could end the debate: If officials decide the Starliner isn't safe for return, it will detach empty from the station and Williams and Wilmore will return aboard a SpaceX Dragon capsule. (Starliner may still be able to return to Earth autonomously and safely in this scenario, but the outlook is less favorable.)

NASA has already postponed the launch of the SpaceX Crew-9 mission to the ISS by a month to September 24. Williams and Wilmore are scheduled to use the spacecraft to return to Earth at the end of their stay in February 2025.

If NASA decides that Starliner should return empty, it could remove two astronauts from the Crew-9 crew roster to make room for Williams and Wilmore's return. Another option being considered is for one of the Starliner astronauts to return on Crew 8 and the other on Crew 9, but this would be the first time the SpaceX Dragon would fly with five crew members at once.

Unlike Starliner, Dragon has proven itself bona fide with NASA. The spacecraft is essential to the space agency as it is the only means of transporting U.S. astronauts (especially since global politics have prevented the use of Russian Soyuz capsules and facilities). SpaceX's Dragon completed its crewed certification mission in 2020 and has since conducted eight crewed missions for NASA, as well as several crewed private space missions. Starliner is the only credible candidate at this point, and if Starliner is taken off the board, Dragon will be even more in demand.

NASA leadership, including Principal Administrator Bill Nelson, is scheduled to conduct a so-called "agency-level review" of the data, also known as a flight readiness review, on Saturday and hold a press conference shortly thereafter. The stakes are high for both NASA and Boeing. Boeing has invested more than $1.5 billion in its Starliner program, and it's unclear whether the aerospace giant will continue development if the test mission fails. NASA, meanwhile, has paid Boeing $4.2 billion over the years to develop the spacecraft and wanted to secure two private suppliers to transport astronauts. If his decision on Saturday leads to the end of either proposal, it could lead to delicate discussions about the budget. Like that, Saturday decisions are probably the moment of the basin in the universe and private partnership. Connect at 10 am in the Pacific time or see the cover on Saturday.